Macroeconomic Forecasts - Russia - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 143.76 143.89 143.96 143.99 143.96 143.90 143.79
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,053.3 1,359.0 1,283.6 1,521.9 1,592.8 1,648.9 1,691.8
GDP per capita, USD 14,282 9,444 8,915 10,569 11,063 11,459 11,765
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 1.6 -3.4 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.3 2.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 7.8 15.6 7.1 3.7 3.4 4.2 4.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.1
Central bank policy rate, % eop 17.00 11.00 10.00 7.75 7.00 6.00 6.00
Exchange rate RUB/USD, ave 38.57 61.24 67.04 58.32 58.00 59.09 60.71
Exchange rate RUB/USD, eop 58.25 72.52 61.54 57.69 58.50 59.67 61.76
Budget balance, RUBbn -334.7 -1,961.0 -2,956.4 -1,833.7 -1,517.5 -1,111.8 -426.1
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.4 -2.4 -3.4 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 -0.4
Goods and services exports, USDbn 562.6 393.2 332.2 365.9 393.6 421.2 445.3
Goods and services imports, USDbn 428.9 281.6 266.0 282.3 307.9 333.0 356.9
Current account balance, USDbn 57.5 68.9 25.0 39.2 38.2 37.3 35.0
Current account balance, % of GDP 2.8 5.1 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 339.4 319.8 317.5 343.0 367.0 392.6 416.2
Import cover, months 9.5 13.6 14.3 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.0
Total external debt stock, USDbn 463.7 378.6 372.5 380.7 391.5 403.3 416.4
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 22.6 27.9 29.0 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.6
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,299.8 11,462.0 11,728.0 11,806.6 11,810.1 11,947.6 12,013.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 7,825.5 8,171.8 8,461.4 8,541.4 8,508.2 8,632.4 8,688.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 635.4 635.6 636.9 689.0 668.3 671.0 678.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 433.9 429.2 419.3 449.4 451.6 454.8 458.9