Macroeconomic Forecasts - Romania - DEC 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Romania 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, EURbn 144.3 150.4 160.1 169.0 177.5 191.1 206.3
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 3.8 3.6
GDP per capita, EUR 7,190 7,528 8,053 8,546 9,018 9,759 10,589
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 7.9 6.2 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.7 3.5
Population, mn 20.07 19.97 19.88 19.78 19.68 19.58 19.48
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.5 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 2.2 3.3 3.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 4.0 1.1 -0.6 -1.5 1.4 2.8 3.4
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.00 2.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.75 4.00
Exchange rate RON/USD, ave 3.33 3.35 4.01 4.06 4.04 4.12 3.91
Exchange rate RON/USD, eop 3.25 3.70 4.16 4.31 3.98 4.11 3.90
Budget balance, USDbn -4.0 -2.7 -1.3 -5.7 -7.3 -7.5 -8.2
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.1 -1.4 -0.8 -3.0 -3.7 -3.6 -3.4
Goods and services exports, EURbn 57.3 61.9 65.7 70.2 75.1 79.9 84.7
Goods and services imports, EURbn 49.7 53.4 56.9 61.4 66.2 70.3 73.8
Current account balance, EURbn -1.5 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.1 -5.8 -6.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3 -2.9 -3.1 -3.0
Foreign reserves ex gold, EURbn 24.5 24.3 29.0 31.7 31.5 32.8 31.7
Import cover, months 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.3
Total external debt stock, EURbn 89.9 92.1 88.1 96.1 95.5 103.7 110.5
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 64.7 56.1 54.0 54.0 54.7 54.3 53.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 92.4 88.8 84.9 81.0 77.2 75.4 72.6
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -74.3 -82.9 -95.0 -122.9 -126.2 -126.4 -128.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.5 9.6 11.5 9.9 10.3 9.9 10.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 12.8 11.5 11.9 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.7