Macroeconomic Forecasts - Poland - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 38.29 38.27 38.22 38.17 38.10 38.03 37.94
Nominal GDP, USDbn 545.1 477.3 469.8 523.6 585.3 633.6 690.1
GDP per capita, USD 14,233 12,474 12,289 13,717 15,361 16,661 18,188
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.3 3.9 2.8 4.5 3.8 3.1 3.1
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 3.4 17.1 3.1 7.5 6.5 6.0 6.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -1.0 -0.5 0.8 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.50 3.50
Exchange rate PLN/USD, ave 3.16 3.77 3.94 3.77 3.58 3.52 3.44
Exchange rate PLN/USD, eop 3.54 3.92 4.19 3.48 3.66 3.45 3.42
Budget balance, PLNbn -60.0 -46.2 -44.7 -33.0 -58.8 -60.2 -63.8
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.5 -2.6 -2.4 -1.7 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 259.2 236.0 244.5 272.2 299.7 323.7 354.0
Goods and services imports, USDbn 251.5 221.4 227.2 255.2 283.5 308.6 339.1
Current account balance, USDbn -11.3 -2.9 -1.0 -2.2 -5.9 -9.0 -11.7
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 92.9 112.2 115.6 119.0 122.6 126.3 130.1
Import cover, months 5.2 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.4
Total external debt stock, USDbn 270.1 250.2 254.5 268.5 285.2 304.5 326.2
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 49.6 52.4 54.2 51.3 48.7 48.1 47.3
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 30.3 24.4 27.1 29.7 28.8 28.1 27.3
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -471.9 -514.9 -560.7 -573.0 -589.1 -605.5 -619.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 17.7 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3