Macroeconomic Forecasts - Macroeconomic Forecasts - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Croatia 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 57.0 48.9 50.7 55.2 58.7 61.2 65.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -0.5 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4
GDP per capita, USD 13,393 11,542 12,032 13,168 14,098 14,777 15,818
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 1.2 2.4 5.1 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Population, mn 4.26 4.24 4.21 4.19 4.16 4.14 4.12
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 7.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00
Exchange rate HRK/USD, ave 5.75 6.86 6.81 6.57 6.43 6.45 6.32
Exchange rate HRK/USD, eop 6.31 7.02 7.18 6.21 6.63 6.32 6.32
Budget balance, HRKbn -17.0 -11.2 -3.2 -2.1 -1.9 -2.4 -3.4
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.2 -3.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8
Goods and services exports, USDbn 26.1 23.9 25.2 27.1 28.7 29.8 31.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 25.0 22.6 23.6 25.4 27.2 28.4 30.3
Current account balance, USDbn 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 2.1 4.8 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.9
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 15.0 14.2 14.5 15.0 16.5 17.0 19.0
Import cover, months 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.5
Total external debt stock, USDbn 48.7 43.5 37.9 39.6 41.5 43.1 45.7
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 85.4 89.0 74.7 71.7 70.6 70.5 70.2
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 15.7 14.3 15.1 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -48.6 -52.4 -47.0 -48.6 -48.7 -48.7 -48.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0