Macroeconomic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan - NOV 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 7.3 7.5 6.6 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.3
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 11.4 4.0 3.5 0.4 1.8 4.4 4.8
GDP per capita, USD 1,290 1,295 1,121 979 1,043 1,087 1,166
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 19.4 -8.7 -16.7 -7.5 -2.5 2.5 6.0
Population, mn 5.68 5.77 5.87 5.96 6.05 6.13 6.22
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.0 11.0 3.4 -3.7 6.0 5.0 4.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 2.3 7.5 6.6 -5.8 6.0 5.5 4.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.18 10.50 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Exchange rate KGS/USD, ave 48.44 53.57 64.40 73.95 74.00 77.50 78.50
Exchange rate KGS/USD, eop 49.25 58.89 75.90 72.00 76.00 79.00 78.00
Budget balance, KGSbn -13.1 -13.9 -14.2 -13.6 -12.4 -10.9 -11.5
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.7 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.7 -2.1 -2.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 2.0 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
Goods and services imports, USDbn 5.6 5.2 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6
Current account balance, USDbn -1.7 -1.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -22.7 -18.3 -8.6 -6.0 -5.9 -6.2 -6.0
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
Import cover, months 4.8 4.5 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8
Total external debt stock, USDbn 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 92.8 97.0 114.1 128.3 118.1 111.6 102.4
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -35.9 -35.9 -35.9 -35.9 -35.9 -35.9 -35.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4