Macroeconomic Forecasts - Kazakhstan - OCT 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 236.5 221.1 183.5 135.1 155.1 169.6 188.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.0 4.2 1.2 1.0 4.3 3.3 3.6
GDP per capita, USD 13,745 12,640 10,338 7,511 8,522 9,217 10,149
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 2.3 0.2 -1.6 -1.2 3.7 5.3 5.0
Population, mn 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.8 7.4 13.6 8.5 7.0 6.0 5.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.8 6.7 6.6 14.7 7.8 6.5 5.8
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.50 5.50 16.00 12.00 9.50 8.50 8.00
Exchange rate KZT/USD, ave 152.20 179.48 222.80 341.89 324.00 325.00 319.00
Exchange rate KZT/USD, eop 154.27 182.35 340.60 333.69 330.00 320.00 318.00
Budget balance, KZTbn 1,780.4 984.7 -2,557.6 -2,000.1 -3,848.6 -1,061.6 -1,078.7
Budget balance, % of GDP 4.9 2.5 -6.3 -4.3 -7.7 -1.9 -1.8
Goods and services exports, USDbn 90.9 86.9 53.0 43.6 51.4 56.5 63.2
Goods and services imports, USDbn 63.3 57.0 45.4 38.9 44.0 47.2 52.2
Current account balance, USDbn 1.2 6.1 -5.1 -8.5 -6.5 -5.7 -5.5
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.5 2.8 -2.8 -6.3 -4.2 -3.4 -2.9
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 24.7 29.2 27.9 29.8 32.0 34.6 37.4
Import cover, months 4.7 6.2 7.4 9.2 8.7 8.8 8.6
Total external debt stock, USDbn 149.7 157.7 154.3 154.4 150.7 148.3 147.2
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 63.3 71.3 84.1 114.3 97.1 87.4 78.0
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,654.9 1,715.9 1,680.4 1,652.6 1,841.4 1,877.4 1,891.3
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 1,410.0 1,463.4 1,419.4 1,398.3 1,579.3 1,606.2 1,611.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 18.6 19.3 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.2 26.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 15.7 12.7 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.3