Macroeconomic Forecasts - Kazakhstan - JUNE 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2021)
Indicator 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 183.5 134.3 159.0 177.1 194.6 208.0 222.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.2 1.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.7
GDP per capita, USD 10,942 7,931 9,307 10,276 11,196 11,872 12,618
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave -1.6 -1.2 3.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0
Population, mn 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 13.6 8.5 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 6.6 14.7 7.5 6.3 5.8 5.3 5.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 16.00 12.00 10.00 9.00 8.50 8.00 8.00
Exchange rate KZT/USD, ave 222.80 341.89 315.00 307.50 305.00 310.00 315.00
Exchange rate KZT/USD, eop 340.60 333.69 310.00 305.00 305.00 315.00 315.00
Budget balance, KZTbn -2,799.6 -2,584.0 -2,286.8 -1,995.9 -1,719.4 -1,597.3 -1,395.3
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.8 -5.6 -4.6 -3.7 -2.9 -2.5 -2.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 52.9 43.7 51.5 56.5 63.2 72.3 82.7
Goods and services imports, USDbn 45.4 37.6 42.4 45.5 50.3 56.8 64.4
Current account balance, USDbn -5.5 -5.4 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.7
Current account balance, % of GDP -3.0 -4.0 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.3
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 27.9 29.8 32.0 34.6 37.4 40.7 44.4
Import cover, months 7.4 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.3
Total external debt stock, USDbn 154.3 151.9 144.1 138.4 134.3 130.6 126.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 84.1 113.1 90.6 78.1 69.0 62.8 56.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,680.4 1,652.6 1,778.8 1,830.4 1,843.9 1,786.5 1,731.2
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 1,419.4 1,398.3 1,516.6 1,559.2 1,563.7 1,498.0 1,437.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 24.4 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5