Industry Trend Analysis - Strong Economic Recovery Will Drive Market Growth - NOV 2017


BMI View: Our revised forecasts show that the Lithuanian medical device market will record moderate growth in local currency terms as the economy expands, and lower growth in US dollar terms, due to local currency depreciation. The market will benefit from positive drivers such as the ageing population and the potential to grow the private health sector, while the relatively low health spending as a percentage of GDP and the small domestic industry will restrict market growth.

We have revised our forecast upwards in local currency terms and now expect the market to register a 2016-2021 CAGR of 7.0%, which should see expenditure rise to EUR409.9mn by 2021. We expect the market to register high single-digit growth in 2017-2019 and mid single-digit growth in 2020-2021. The market will benefit from robust real GDP growth over the short-term, driven by the buoyant household sector, inward investment and a mild improvement in demand from key trade partners.

We have revised our forecast upwards and now project that the market will expand by a 2016-2021 CAGR of 5.5% in US dollar terms, which will see it grow to USD422.2mn by 2021. The lower dollar forecast reflects further weakening of the euro, which will depreciate against the US dollar over most of the 2016-2021 forecast period. This will cause the market to register high single-digit growth in 2017-2018 and mid single-digit growth in 2019-2021.

Expanding Economy Will Support Market Growth
Medical Device Market, Local Currency, 2011-2021
Source: National Sources/BMI

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