Industry Trend Analysis - Strong Economic Performance Will Support Market Growth - OCT 2017


BMI View: Our revised forecasts show that the Estonian medical device market will record high single-digit growth in local currency terms as the economy outperforms, and slightly lower growth in US dollar terms, due to the weaker euro. The market will benefit from positive drivers such as the ageing population and government investment in primary healthcare services, while the low proportion of GDP spent on health and the small domestic industry will res trict market growth.

In local currency terms, we have revised upwards our forecast and project the market will increase by a 2016-2021 CAGR of 7.5%, which will take the total to EUR205.1mn by 2021. We expect the market to register high single-digit growth every year between 2017 and 2021. The market will benefit from rapid economic growth in the quarters ahead and outperformance relative to the rest of the eurozone in the long-term on the back of the stable domestic political situation and open business environment.

We have revised upwards our forecasts and project the market will increase by a 2016-2021 CAGR of 6.0% in US dollar terms to USD211.3mn by 2021. The lower dollar growth rate is due to further projected depreciation of the euro against the US dollar between 2017 and 2020. The market will register mid single-digit annual growth from 2017 to 2020 and stronger growth in 2021.

Economic Outperformance Will Boost Market Growth
Medical Device Market, Local Currency, 2011-2021 (2011-2021)
Source: National Sources/BMI

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