Industry Trend Analysis - Buoyant Economy And Euro Appreciation Will Support Market Growth - FEB 2018


BMI View: The Lithuanian medical device market will record high single-digit growth in local currency terms as the economy expands, while it will register higher growth in US dollar terms on the back of a stronger outlook for the euro. The market will benefit from positive drivers such as the ageing population and the potential to grow the private health sector, while a reduced health insurance budget for medical devices in 2018 and the small domestic industry will restrict market growth.

We maintain our forecast in local currency terms and expect the market to register a 2016-2021 CAGR of 7.0%, which should see expenditure rise to EUR409.9mn by 2021. We expect the market to register high single-digit growth in 2018-2019 and mid single-digit growth in 2020-2021. The market will benefit from robust real GDP growth over the short-term, driven by the buoyant household sector, inward investment and a mild improvement in demand from key trade partners.

We have revised our forecast upwards in US dollar terms on the back of a stronger outlook for the euro which will stabilise against the US dollar over the forecast period. We now project a 2016-2021 CAGR of 8.2% in US dollar terms, which will see it grow to USD479.6mn by 2021. We forecast mid single-digit annual growth in 2018 and 2021, double-digit growth in 2019 and high single-digit growth in 2020.

Robust Economic Growth Will Boost Market
Medical Device Market, Local Currency, 2011-2021
Source: National Sources, BMI

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