Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

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Consumer price inflation rose 1.8% y-o-y in Mongolia in December, following on from 1.2% deflation as recently October. The uptick was driven mainly by food prices, which rose 1.9% y-o-y. Meanwhile, utilities and transport prices remained in deflation, falling 3.8% and 0.8% respectively. We caution that inflationary pressures are likely to build in Mongolia in 2010, in line with a wider macroeconomic uptick. Indeed, we forecast inflation to reach 7.0% y-o-y by end-2010, rising to 10.0% by