Macroeconomic Forecast Azerbaijan

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Azerbaijan posted real GDP growth of 5.0% y-o-y over the first eight months of the year, bucking the regional trend to be the only Caucasus country to avoid recession. Sustained expansion of industrial output volumes helped to lift headline growth, while the stabilisation of oil prices through Q209-Q309 has also improved the investment outlook over the medium term. We hold to our forecast for the Azeri economy to expand by 3.8% in 2009 and accelerating back to 9.0% growth in 2010.