Macroeconomic Forecast Albania

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By 2009, the Ministry of Economy and Finance is forecasting exports to rise to US$1.2bn or 10% of GDP. This is slightly more bullish than our own forecasts, but it does underscore the fact that we expect trade volumes to keep on rising in Albania over the coming years, with the government's reform efforts starting to bear some fruit. As such, and with the considerable official and private transfers flowing into Albania, we are not overly concerned by the still significant (over 20% of GDP) trade deficits which we see persisting into the long