Macroeconomic Forecast Bulgaria

In contrast to elsewhere in emerging Europe, inflationary pressures appear to be fairly contained for now. The latest data from the statistical agency report headline inflation of 3.1% y-o-y in December and averaging 2.1% over the course of the year. On the back of higher global commodity prices and Bosnia's fixed exchange rate regime, we expect to see a slight uptick in inflation this year. As such, we forecast consumer price growth to average 2.8% in 2011, edging up to 3.8% in 2012.

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