Macroeconomic Forecast Belarus

According to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, gross external debt rose to US$23.2bn in July from US$22.1bn back in January. This has mostly been driven by an increase in general government debt which rose from US$8.4bn to US$8.9bn over the same period. With government spending rising ahead of elections in December, we expect external debt to have continued rising in the past few months, and we hold to our view that the total is set to reach US$23.4bn by end-2010 and US$25.3bn by end-2011.

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