Macroeconomic Forecast Lithuania

Headline consumer price inflation in Lithuania remained unchanged at 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September, having previously cooled from 1.9% y-o-y in July. This chimes with our end-2010 forecast for 1.7% headline inflation, and is broadly in line with our average full-year forecast of 1.0% inflation, with year-to-date consumer price inflation averaging 0.7% y-o-y in September. Going forward, we see average y-o-y headline inflation climbing to 2.1% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012, as the Lithuanian economy emerges from recession.

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