Macroeconomic Forecast Slovenia

Slovenian unemployment stayed flat at 10.5% according to latest data for June, reinforcing our view that the economic recovery will be protracted. Indeed, while Slovenia hit the trough of its recession in Q309, unemployment has barely fallen, down only 0.2pps from its peak of 10.7% in February. The latest data confirms our view that the jobless rate is likely to improve, though only at a slow pace, with our end-2010 forecast remaining at 10.0%. In 2011, we expect unemployment to fall further to 9.0%, still well off of the pre-recession low of 7.0%.

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