Macroeconomic Forecast Armenia

Unemployment fell to 7.1% in May, its lowest level for five months, supporting our view that the economic situation is improving on the back of increased remittance and investment inflows from Russia. Indeed, Armenia's larger Northern neighbour will remain crucial to its growth prospects through the medium term, particularly given that a resumption of trade relations with Turkey remains some way off. We see unemployment falling to 6.1% by end-year, falling further to 5.5% by end-2011.

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