Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

Industrial output rose by 12.7% y-o-y in May, down from 17.4% in April and 13.8% in March. While this was the lowest growth rate for three months, we note that output is still growing at a healthy lick, with the average 12.3% growth rate over the first five months of 2010 comparing favourably with the 31.9% contraction through the same period in 2009. We forecast industrial output to grow 8.0% over the full year, rising to 10.0% in 2011, on the back of improving external and domestic demand for manufactures.

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