Macroeconomic Forecast Hungary

Retails sales in Hungary fell for the 40th consecutive month in July, declining by 4.7% y-o-y compared to a decline of 5.0% in May. The ongoing decline in retail sales supports our long-held view that household demand would be the weak link in Hungary's economic growth story. Indeed, with a huge stock of external debt, and a significantly weakened currency making matters even worse, we believe that retail sales could stay in negative territory through H210.

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