Nagorno-Karabakh: Progress Unlikely Before November

We believe that a near term breakthrough on the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be extremely difficult to achieve, given the unlikelihood that Baku will soften its stance before a parliamentary election in November. In addition, fundamental disagreements over the order of key steps in the internationally-mediated peace process also create the potential for a breakdown in talks. That said, we still expect a resolution in the medium term, particularly given the ongoing support to talks provided by key regional players such as Russia.

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