Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

The polish zloty came under pressure through May and June, selling off against both the US dollar and the euro as concerns over sovereign debt swept Europe. While we believe that ongoing economic woes emanating from Southern Europe will likely induce further zloty volatility, we remain convinced that the currency remains a convincing appreciation story over the medium term. Indeed, we expect outperformance in the Polish economy through 2010 to help bring the unit back towards our year-end forecasts of PLN2.8000/US$ and EUR3.7000/US$.

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