Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

Mongolian industrial production rose by 13.0% y-o-y in May, up from 11.0% in April and 6.4% in March, supporting our view that the economy is set to grow strongly this year. The increase continued to be driven by manufacturing, which rose 37.4% y-o-y in May, up from 31.1% in April. While less supportive base effects should see the rate of growth slow through H210, we still expect it to remain elevated as the economy continues to recover from its 2009 downturn. We forecast industrial production growth of 17.0% at end-year, rising to 18.0% at

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