Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

Industrial output fell to 12.7% y-o-y in May, down from 17.4% in April, and bringing average industrial output growth in the year to date to 12.3%. The ongoing impressive growth numbers support our view that Ukraine's export sector would lead the recovery in 2010, following on from real GDP growth of 4.8% y-o-y in Q110. While favourable base effects will wear off somewhat through H210, we nevertheless expect industrial output growth to remain robust, and forecast it to come in at 8.0% at end-year, in line with our projection for 5.0% real GDP growth this

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