Macroeconomic Forecast Kazakhstan

On the back of a stronger bounce in economic activity this year (real GDP expanded by 7.1% during the first quarter of 2010) and higher oil prices compared to 2009, we hold to our view that the Kazakh tenge will gradually appreciate to KZT135.00/US$ in 2010 from a current level of around KZT146.80/US$. Despite sticking to this forecast, we highlight risks stemming from the sharp depreciation of the Russian rouble recently, coupled with the threat of a double-dip growth scenario in the US, which could yet see the National Bank of Kazakhstan hold fire on revaluing the tenge.

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