Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

Ukraine's current account posted a surplus of US$109mn through the first four months of 2010, compared to a deficit of US$890mn through the same period last year. Though imports ticked up by 19.7% y-o-y, the surge in exports was more pronounced, expanding by 24.7% y-o-y. Marked improvements were also recorded in the current transfers and income accounts, which posted a surplus of US$984mn and a deficit of US$352mn respectively, compared to a surplus of US$842mn and a shortfall of US$647mn last year. We forecast Ukraine's current account surplus coming in at 1.7% of GDP in 2010.

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