Macroeconomic Forecast Russia

We stand by our forecast for the Russian current account surplus to rise to 5.6% of GDP in 2010. Rising oil prices and an improved global macroeconomic climate, should push goods exports up by 20.0% to US$364.1bn. We stress though, that the bounce will not be uniform through the year, with base effects and a gradual downtrend in the price of oil through H211 expected to weigh on export growth through the latter half of the year. Beyond 2010, we expect the current account surplus to steadily decline, as the economy gradually orients toward domestic demand growth as opposed to the external sector.

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