Macroeconomic Forecast Macedonia

In spite of a 0.7% real GDP contraction in 2009, Macedonia emerged from recession in Q409, recording a 1.2% expansion, according to the State Statistical Office. This is supportive of our view that Macedonia will expand in 2010 by 1.2%, averaging 3.8% throughout the next five years. We see the general economic picture as positive, with consumer prices expected to pick up from deflation last year, inflating by 2.5% inflation by end-2010, while imports and exports are forecast to grow by a similar 2.0% rate, resulting into a net trade to GDP ratio of

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