Macroeconomic Forecast TURKEY

We have revised up our 2010 current account deficit forecast for Turkey to US$36.7bn (4.5% of GDP). The revision reflects the divergent outlook between Turkey and its main European trading partners. Whereas in Turkey, we have recently upgraded domestic demand growth on the back of increasing signs of a recovery in local credit markets. At the same time, the outlook for demand in the eurozone has weakened on the back of the Greek sovereign crisis. As such, we have revised down our forecast for Turkish export growth in 2010 to 5.0%, while increasing our import growth forecast to 18.0%.

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