Macroeconomic Forecast Montenegro

Consumer price inflation in Montenegro came in at 0.7% y-o-y in March, compared to 0.2% and 0.8% in February and January respectively. With 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' accounting for 37.5% of the weighting within the consumer price basket, we stress that the ongoing uptrend in global soft commodity prices poses an upside risk to our end-2010 CPI forecast of 1.5%. Nevertheless, we expect inflationary pressures to remain weak through the medium term concomitant with a weak growth outlook, and forecast CPI coming in at 2.5% by end-2011.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: