Macroeconomic Forecast RussiaMarch 2010 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
Unemployment in Russia ticked higher to 8.6% in February, up from 8.2% at end-2009. The latest data confirms our view that the jobless rate would continue to rise through 2010, despite a tentative macroeconomic recovery. Indeed, industrial capacity is unlikely to surge back quickly in the medium term, with capital investments still weighed down by uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy. As a result, employment is likely to remain below pre-recession levels, and wage growth is not expected to spike back aggressively. We have though, revised down our end-2010 unemployment rate forecast in Russia to 9.0%, from 11.0%, on the back of improving expectations for domestic demand growth.
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