Putin/Medvedev Vulnerable, But To Remain In Control

Lingering effects from the 2009 recession will continue to impact the Russian government's popularity in the medium term, highlighting political vulnerabilities for both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. While we maintain that a change in leadership is highly unlikely, a drop in popularity could impact policy direction and dynamics in the forthcoming presidential election in 2012. We stand by our view that the presidential succession remains an open question, with both Medvedev and Putin standing as the most likely candidates.

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