Macroeconomic Forecast Slovenia

Slovenian unemployment ticked higher to a 69-month high of 10.6% in January, up from 10.3% in the previous month. The latest figure reinforces our view that the labour market would remain very weak in Slovenia through 2010, despite clear signals that the recession troughed in H109. We caution that the economy is only likely to experience a weak recovery this year, and with headline growth likely to be underpinned mainly by base effects as opposed to a fundamental improvement in demand, job creation is expected to remain weak. We hold to our forecast for the jobless rate to come in at 10.0% at end-year.

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