Growth To Outperform Over Medium Term

We expect Azerbaijan's economy to continue growing at a healthy rate over the medium term, and forecast an average 7.4% real GDP expansion over 2010-2014. That said, growth will remain heavily dependent on oil, with peak production in 2015 likely to presage lower trend growth over the long term. As a result, we see the potential for a greater diversification of the sources of economic growth going forward, with gas production and household consumption likely to increase their contribution to the headline number.

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