Mongolia

Industrial output surged to 15.4% y-o-y in January, up from a contraction of 13.9% as recently as September. Although this partly reflects favourable base effects (the indicator contracted 4.8% y-o-y in January 2009), we also believe that the increased output demonstrates the surge in external demand since Q409. With demand in key export markets, notably China, likely to remain strong over the medium term, we see industrial production heading higher through the year, and forecast it to reach 17.0% by end-2010.

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