Macroeconomic Forecast Macedonia

Having slipped into recession in 2009, we expect the Macedonian economy to return to positive growth in 2010 on the back of an improvement in domestic demand. Given that the Macedonian banking sector (in addition to domestic consumers and firms) has not run up the same degree of leverage as some of the more precarious economies in CEE, we expect to see a fairly swift recovery towards trend growth. Specifically, we forecast growth of 1.2% in 2010, accelerating to 3.7% and 4.0% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

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