Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

Industrial production in Ukraine continues to rebound according to latest data from the State Statistics Committee, with output expanding 11.8% y-o-y in January, compared to growth of 7.4% and 8.6% in December and November respectively. In contrast, at the same point last year, output fell 34.1% y-o-y. Though a tentative macroeconomic recovery across the region has certainly helped boost production figures, we caution that the primary cause of the surge in the headline print has been low base effects. We forecast IP expanding 8.0% y-o-y by end-2010.

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