Macroeconomic Forecast Turkey

Industrial output growth surged to 25.2% y-o-y in December, the highest growth recorded under the Statistical Institute's current index series. Though statistical base effects played a major role bolstering the headline growth figure, the output index did rise back to 117.1, in line with production levels seen in the boom period of 2007. The latest industry data reinforces our view that the Turkish economy is among the best positioned in the region to recover quickly and we believe that the outturn bodes very well for real GDP growth in Q409-Q110. We hold to our forecast for Turkey to expand by 3.7% in 2010.

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