Macroeconomic Forecast Serbia

Serbia's stock of foreign currency reserves fell to US$14.8bn in January according to latest data from the National Bank of Serbia, down from US$15.2bn at end-2009. Though we expect the central bank's financial arsenal to remain sufficient to cover the economy's external financing requirements over the medium term, we nevertheless expect reserves to be gradually drawn down over the coming quarters (forecast to come in at US$14.0bn by end-year) as the NBS steps up its interventions on the FX market in a bid to stem the dinar's ongoing depreciation.

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