Macroeconomic Forecast Slovenia

Slovenian unemployment rose to 10.3% in December. While this was less than our forecast of 11.0%, it still represented an increase from 10.0% in November, and 7.0% over the same period a year earlier. Going forward, we hold to our view that the jobless rate in Slovenia will remain at historically high levels, with weak credit markets and the lack of a strong regional macroeconomic recovery holding back job creation. We maintain our forecast for unemployment to come in at 10.0% by end-2010, and fall only to 8.5% by end-2011.

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