Macroeconomic Forecast Armenia

Armenian GDP came in at AMD2,120.2bn over Q109-Q309, a 16.2% real contraction from the same period in 2008. The latest print keeps Armenian GDP on course for our forecast for a full year 16.5% real contraction. Although Armenia underwent one of the most severe contractions in the CEE region in 2009, we expect it to bounce back much more quickly than other countries which have experienced double digit downturns. Indeed, we forecast real GDP expansion of 4.0% in 2010, rising to 6.0% in

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