Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

The Tajik somoni levelled off at TJS4.37/US$ in January 2010, having undergone significant depreciation in November 2009 which saw the currency sell-off from TJS3.70/US$, a level which it had maintained since February. Going forward, we do not expect any further significant depreciation of the currency. Indeed, as aluminium and cotton exports begin to pick up in line with improved global demand, in particular from China, we expect buying pressure on the currency to concomitantly increase. As such, we forecast the somoni to come in at TJS4.20/US$ by end-2010.

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