Macroeconomic Forecast Belarus

According to the National Statistical Agency of the Republic of Belarus, consumer prices increased by 10.1% y-o-y in December, down from 11.1% in October and 12.5% in August. The end-year figure supports our view that the deflationary trend would continue throughout 2009, constituting the 9th straight month in which prices decreased in annualised terms. As such, the headline rate came in only 0.1% above our estimated target of 10.0% y-o-y. Going forward, we expect the disinflationary trend to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, and as such forecast growth of 9.0% by end-2010.

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