Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

Retail sales in Ukraine fell by 20.6% y-o-y in December according to latest data from the State Statistics Committee, marking the 12 straight month that sales have contracted compared to the same period a year earlier. December's print also brought the average rate of decline in retail sales to 18.8% y-o-y, highlighting the weak state of the Ukrainian consumer at this juncture. Though we expect low base effects to push the headline figure higher through 2010, we caution that a robust demand-driven recovery will not likely materialise until 2011 at the earliest.

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