Macroeconomic Forecast Montenegro

Montenegro's external asymmetries continue to unwind, with the current account deficit narrowing to EUR332mn through September 2009, compared to a shortfall of EUR718mn through the same time period in 2008. In the first nine months of the year, exports contracted by 40.9% y-o-y (coming in at EUR242mn), while imports fell 38.3% compared to the same period (coming in at EUR979mn). Going forward, we project Montenegro's current account deficit narrowing to 11.8% of GDP in 2010, down from an estimated 29.2% and 13.7% in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

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