Macroeconomic Forecast ESTONIA

Estonia posted its eighth consecutive current account surplus in November, bringing the year-to-date surplus up to EUR533mn. The latest data confirms our long-held view that Estonia will post a massive current account surplus in 2009, which is estimated to amount to 4.6% of GDP. Beyond 2009, we expect the surplus to steadily decline as domestic demand picks up on the back of a slow macroeconomic recovery. We stress though, that foreign financing for Estonia will remain highly constricted over the long term and so we do not expect the current account to fall back into deficit within our forecast period.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: