Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

Having delivered sizeable cuts to its main policy rate in 2009 amid the tightening in global credit conditions and ensuing economic downturn, we believe that the National Bank of Poland will shift into tightening mode in 2010. We expect rates to remain on hold in the early part of the year, especially given that a fresh wave of MPC members will take over in Q1, though forecast a cumulative 50bps in hikes by end-year, taking the reference rate to 4.00%.

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