Macroeconomic Forecast Hungary

Consumer price inflation in Hungary ticked higher in November, according to latest data released by the Central Statistical Office on December 11, with the headline print coming in at 5.2% y-o-y, compared to 4.7% in October. While the disinflationary trend in utility prices continued unabated (with prices increasing by 2.0% y-o-y, compared to 5.8% a month earlier), other major components of the consumer price basket (most notably food, motor fuels, and services) saw an acceleration in the pace of inflation. Going forward, we forecast inflation coming in at 5.0% and 3.5% at end-2009 and 2010, respectively.

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