Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

The macroeconomic growth outlook for Turkmenistan looks increasingly strong going forward. Indeed, the decision by Russia to begin importing gas again in 2010, alongside increasing interest by China in further developing Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon sector following the opening of the Central Asia-China pipeline, bodes well for energy-sector led growth. Indeed, the energy sector has historically been the main driver of Turkmenistan's relative economic outperformance in the region. As such, while we hold to our view that 2009 saw subdued growth for Turkmenistan of 5.4%, we believe that growth will return to 8.5% in 2010 and 9.0% in 2011.

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