Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

Tajikistan has reduced aluminium output by 10.5% y-o-y in the period Jan-Sep 2009 as a result of a fall in global aluminium prices, according to the state-run aluminium company, TALCO . Aluminium serves as Tajikistan's primary export and we therefore hold to our view that exports for 2009 will come in at $1.35bn, down from $1.5bn in 2008. However, in line with our bullish view for aluminium prices over the medium-term, we forecast exports to increase to $1.56bn and $1.74bn in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

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